Black Friday-Cyber Monday Sales Expected to Top $85B in 2026
Bain & Company forecasts 8.75% sales growth over the BFCM weekend, nearly double the broader holiday season outlook.
Black Friday through Cyber Monday weekend sales are projected to exceed $85 billion this year, according to a new forecast from Bain & Company, as consumer appetite for the marquee shopping period intensifies heading into the 2026 holiday season.
Bain projects 8.75% year-over-year growth for the Black Friday–Cyber Monday stretch, a pace that nearly doubles the consulting firm's broader holiday season growth forecast of 4.5%. The divergence suggests shoppers are increasingly concentrating discretionary spending around the high-profile promotional window rather than spreading purchases across the full November-December period.
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Consumer participation is also rising. Roughly 70% of U.S. shoppers say they plan to make purchases on Black Friday, Cyber Monday, or both — up from 64% the prior year, according to Bain's data. The six-percentage-point jump indicates that the promotional weekend continues to expand its reach beyond its traditional retail-core audience.
The figures underscore a broader trend in which retailers front-load holiday discounting to capture early-season demand, a strategy that has blurred the lines between the traditional shopping calendar and the concentrated BFCM sprint. Analysts have noted that deep promotions tied to the weekend have become a structural feature of the U.S. consumer economy rather than a one-off event.
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